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| Billie Silvey |
| Interview with A Meteorologist |
| March 2007 |
| Q Does our current fast-paced, urban society separate us from paying attention to the earth, sky and weather? A Modern society tends to isolate us from the environment around us. We go from our air-conditioned house to our air-conditioned office, store, church, etc., in our air-conditioned car and never truly experience the weather around us. We lose any appreciation of the true variations in wind, temperature, etc. The light pollution around our cities denies us the beauty of the night sky. The buildings around us deny us the beauty of the sunrise and sunset. For these reasons, I enjoy the open spaces in the southwest, Arizona, New Mexico and others. A few years ago, my wife and I drove every paved mile in the Navajo Nation. In the open spaces, especially at night, you can really enjoy the majesty of the creation! Q You've written on uncertainty in weather forecasting. Would you discuss some implications of that fact? A Weather forecasting is important on many fronts. We all use weather forecasts on a daily basis to make all kinds of decisions, ranging from how to dress the children as they wait for the school bus to planning outdoor barbecues or deciding if we carry an umbrella with us. Uncertainty information is not very important in these daily personal forecasts. But if you consider a forecast of a major storm track, whether a major snow storm or a hurricane, the uncertainty information is critical to determining the actions that need to be taken to protect lives. A farmer needs to understand the forecast uncertainty to decide whether to take action for potential frost or freeze for sensitive crops. Construction and transportation businesses have sophisticated business models for weather-sensitive operations that take into consideration the uncertainties in the forecasts to predict the probabilities of successful completion of the tasks. When I was Director of the National Weather Service, I always stressed to the emergency management community that they needed to know how we could help them in hazardous weather situations and, equally important, what our limitations were. Q What importance do you place on clear communication in weather forecasting? A The proper communication of the forecasts is as important as the forecasts themselves. Without accurate, understandable communications of the forecasts, correct actions to save lives and property in the path of severe weather may not be taken. The forecast should be communicated clearly, in terms appropriate to the receiver, and include the estimates of uncertainty in the forecast. Q You wrote a commendation of women in the Weather Bureau in World War II. What do you consider the major contributions of women to the field? A Historically, in this country, weather forecasting has been a 'man's profession.' It is interesting that in some countries today, it is primarily a 'women's profession.' The historical reason for this is probably attributed to the shift work nature of the job and the belief, however erroneously, that shift work could not be handled by women. Today, an increasing percentage of the profession are women, and they have clearly demonstrated that there is no difference in the ability of the sexes. The president of the American Meteorological Society two years ago was Dr. Susan Avery, an outstanding scientist at the University of Colorado. Dr. Susan Solomon discovered the ozone hole over Antarctica and received the President's Medal of Science, the most prestigious award this nation offers its scientists. Women have served in senior management positions in the National Weather Service and other weather-related organizations. Q Is global warming a wakeup call or a sentence of doom? A I do not believe that global warming is a sentence of doom; the past climates of the earth show epochs when the world was warmer than today and much colder as well. But things will change. As a society, we need to be aware of the potential impacts of climate change, and strive to improve our stewardship of the planet. Efficient use of energy is important, not only to reduce the global warming potential, but also to reduce this nation's dependence on oil from politically unstable regions of the globe. I have faith in the ability of our science and technology to address these issues. Now we simply need the leadership and will to do so. Q As a person of faith, how do you balance faith and reason in your life and work? A As I have learned more about 'science,' I am increasingly certain of the existence of God. I am amazed at His power and the majesty of His creation. It is incomprehensible to me how this creation could have resulted from the accidental alignment of atoms and molecules. I do not engage in some of the current debates contrasting religion and science. I believe that God is God and we are not! God used whatever mechanism to create the heavens and the earth, and I do not worry about how He did it. I try to live my life with that in mind. Paul tells us to be thankful in all things. Not thankful for all things, but in all things, realizing that we are not in this alone; rather we have the Holy Spirit with us to comfort us, regardless of the situation. My wife has been battling a stage four cancer for two and one-half years. We give thanks that God is with us through all the ordeals of treatment and disease. He has blessed us through this. Her cancer type results in a life expectancy of two months after diagnosis. The extra time with which he has blessed us has allowed us to come closer together with each other and closer to God. |
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| Dr. Elbert W. (Joe) Friday, Jr. |
| Elbert W. Friday, Jr. is Professor Emeritus of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma. He recently served as a member of the National Research Council’s Committee on Strategic Guidance for NSF's Support of Research in the Atmospheric Sciences. Chair of the Science Advisory Team for the Northrop-Grumman National Polar Orbiting Operational Environment Satellite Program, he also serves as a member of the Board of Directors of Weathernews, America, Inc, a private weather services company. He was director of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) at the National Academy of Sciences from July, 1998 to May, 2002. As Assistant Administrator for the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, he was responsible for research and development programs that supported and enhanced both current and future NOAA services. He also has served as Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, Director of the National Weather Service (NWS) and US Permanent Representative to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization. Dr. Friday received his Bachelor of Science degree in Engineering Physics and his Masters and Ph.D. degrees in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma. He has served as Deacon, Elder, Trustee, and Chairman of the Board of Calvary Christian Church in Burke, Virginia. He and his wife Karen have two children and five grandchildren. I asked Dr. Friday these questions: |